UC Irvine

This study examines religion’s role in population fertility and mortality during a time of demographic transition. As all societies desire either sustainment or growth, I utilize functionalist social theory to approach religion as an emergent property of society, one that directs behavior to advance social objectives. To further describe this relationship, I propose three constructs that mediate religion’s ability to shape society: beliefs, rules, and community. As a case study of this framework, I utilize 19th and early 20th century Utah based upon its history as an incipient society comprised of religious individuals who experienced population expansion. Specifically, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (hereafter called “the Church”) attempted to influence Utah’s population through directives concerning tobacco consumption, community support of families, and a theology encouraging polygamy. Utilizing the Utah Population Database, this dissertation employs three tests to consider how religion might shape fertility and mortality in expanding populations: 1) an examination of the Church’s 1921 anti-tobacco policy and comparative changes in morbidity and mortality amongst active and inactive Latter-day Saint participators, 2) a comparison of fertility rates among active Latter-day Saint females according to the religious density of their community, and 3) an analysis concerning the correlation between infant mortality rates and the polygamous status of the infant’s mother.

Aim 1 demonstrates a reduced hazard risk ratio (HRR) of tobacco related death (Female HRR = 0.88, Male HRR= 0.67. p<.05) and increased life span (Female = 3.64 years, Male = 5.18 years, all p<.05) for active Latter-day Saint individuals compared to inactive Latter-day Saint individuals after the initiation of the 1921 tobacco policy. The results from Aim 2 suggest that fertility among active Latter-day Saint females correlates positively with the religious intensity of their enumeration district (.027, p = <.0001). This implies that an active female in an enumeration district with 67% active Latter-day Saints will have 0.44 more children than active Latter-day Saint women in a district with 27% active Latter-day Saints. Finally, while the offspring of polygamous wives in Aim 3 do face increased infant mortality risks (β= 0.089, p <.0001) compared to offspring of monogamous wives, some evidence suggests weakening risk for later cohorts, although the population of polygamists decreases during this time period, leaving inference difficult. Although not all tests support their hypothesis, in general these results suggest that in historic Utah, religion served greater social objectives of expanding society through religion’s belief, rules, and community.