UC San Diego

This dissertation is about democratic change in "autocratic ethnofederations" (AEFs) with a focus on Ethiopia. AEFs are autocracies where the state governments are ethnic homelands. For example, Pakistan's Punjab province is the home of Punjabi speakers. Billions of people have lived in the current and defunct AEFs, including India, Yugoslavia, and Malaysia. AEF has been a conspicuous institution in several democratic transitions, like the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia in 1990. In other cases --like Pakistan's 20th century military dictatorships-- AEF leaders autocratized, repressing opponents and cancelling elections.

An important share of AEF regime changes can be understood as responses to 'crises,' like mass protests. I ask: When might autocrats respond to crises with authoritarian repression or democratic concessions? I theorize the importance of different combinations of 'centralization' and 'ethnic exclusion. In centralized and exclusive AEFs, power is concentrated in the autocrat's federal government, which is dominated by one ethnic group. This combination of strength and ethnic unity enables autocrats to respond to crises with repression. By contrast, in decentralized and inclusive AEFs, the federal government is weak and ethnically fractured, disabling effective repression. As the crisis intensifies without a resolution, autocrats will be compelled to make democratic concessions.

I find preliminary cross-national support for the theory. In 100% of the decentralized, inclusive AEFs that faced crises prior to regime change, incumbents democratized. And in 81% of the centralized, exclusive AEFs that faced crises prior to regime change, incumbents autocratized. However, more is required to show that autocrats' responses were actually affected by different combinations of centralization and exclusion.

Finally, I conduct three case studies of Ethiopia, an AEF that autocratized in 2005 and 2019 and partially democratized in 2018. The cases illustrate how Ethiopia's democratic trajectory has been shaped by different combinations of centralization and exclusion since the fall of the Derg. The case studies are corroborated by interviews with Ethiopian elites, which show that elite behavior was consistent with the case study conclusions. My findings have implications for international democracy promotion, which could strive to deepen both decentralization and ethnic inclusion in AEFs like Ethiopia.