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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation of Glucose Metabolism in Type 1 Diabetic Subjects

  • Author(s): Bhatt, Vashishtha Janakkumar
  • Advisor(s): Stahovich, Thomas
  • et al.
Creative Commons 'BY-NC-SA' version 4.0 license

Approximately 1.5 million people live with type 1 diabetes in the US alone. The chronic disease must be managed by adopting a strict glycemic control regimen. We have developed a prediction algorithm to aid in bolus calculation and meal planning. By continuously estimating the parameters of a physiological metabolism model, the algorithm can predict blood glucose concentrations 30-minutes in advance. Such a prediction system allows a subject to prevent hypoglycemic episodes. The algorithm uses continuous glucose monitor (CGM) measurements along with meal and insulin inputs to compute the best fit on a patient-specific model. The prediction accuracy is evaluated by computing the root mean squared error (RMSE) between predicted 30-minute concentration and the actual value. An average RMSE value of 9 mg/dl is achieved on the dataset. The algorithm also predicts over 85% of the values within zone A of the Clarke error grid. Further, the system is implemented on a web server that interfaces with Dexcom’s share-API. The web service makes prediction data available to care-providers in real time for timely intervention in hypoglycemia events.

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