UCLA

This thesis examines the roles of luck and skill in Texas Hold’em poker through theoretical analysis, statistical modeling, and empirical data from millions of hands. The study evaluates their influence across game stages—pre-flop, flop, turn, river, and show- down—highlighting how skill mitigates randomness as the game progresses.Findings reveal that while luck dominates early stages, skill increasingly impacts out- comes by enabling strategic and psychological decision-making. Quantitative models measure stage-specific contributions of luck and skill, showing that skill drives consistent long-term performance, whereas luck introduces short-term variability. Visual analyses further emphasize their complementary roles. The research provides actionable insights for optimizing poker strategies, managing risks, and improving long-term performance, while contributing to the debate on whether poker is a game of luck or skill. Future work may explore advanced modeling techniques and broader applications in decision-making under uncertainty.