Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

This study explores the potential impact of green marketing-supported electric-generator capacity additions and alternative cost of energy assumptions for renewable energy technologies on the overall cost and development of renewable grid-connected power generation in a modified version of NEMS. The expectation is that policies and programs designed to increase market share will leverage economies of scale and learning by doing that will in turn help reduce the cost of these technologies, making them more cost-competitive in the long run with currently established technologies. Seven simulations were conducted using a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS-GPRA) (Table ES-1). Results are compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) Reference Case for six renewable energy technologies. For each of these scenarios, the renewable energy technologies considered were geothermal, biomass, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, wind and municipal solid waste (excluded in the levelized cost scenarios).