Climate Science and Policy

Changes in depth and temperature due to climate change are predicted to highly impact seagrass coverage and distribution. Seagrass is critical for many marine species, including the endangered West Indian Manatee. Predicting changes in seagrass abundance for several climate change trajectories will help inform manatees conservation and preservation. In this study, the SLAMM model was used to assess how sea-level rise would impact the northern Indian River Lagoon, on the Atlantic coast of Florida. This ecosystem is especially interesting as it is one of the places with the highest manatee abundance throughout the state. Using predicted changes in temperature and depth over the area, MaxEnt was run to assess predicted seagrass habitat suitability for 4 climate change scenarios. It was found that as emissions increase, seagrass coverage predictions were increasing too. To assess the seagrass areas that would be available to manatees, the preferred depth and temperature range of the species was estimated. Those estimations were used to map and quantify the areas of seagrass reachable by manatees in each prediction. The areas unreachable by manatees increase as emissions increase but the total seagrass areas that would be a part of their predicted range is highest than it is in present days for all scenarios. Both predictions of seagrass habitat suitability and changes in manatees’ foraging areas should be taken into account and inform seagrass restoration and manatees conservation projects.