Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

In 1993 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced ENERGY STAR (registered trademark), a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products. Since then EPA, now in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), has introduced programs for more than twenty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, new homes, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. We present potential energy, dollar and carbon savings forecasts for these programs for the period 1998 to 2010. Our target market penetration case represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide results under the assumption of 100 market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of our target penetration case forecasts to greater or lesser marketing success by EPA and DOE, lower-than-expected future energy prices, and higher or lower rates of carbon emission by electricity generators. The potential savings of ENERGY STAR are substantial. If all purchasers chose Energy Star-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products over the next 15 years, they would save more than 100 billion on their energy bills during those 15 years. (Bill savings are in 1995 dollars, discounted at a 4 real discount rate.)