Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The magnitude and variability of the terrestrial CO2 sink remain uncertain, partly due to limited global information on ecosystem nitrogen (N) and its cycle. Without N constraint in ecosystem models, the simulated benefits from CO2 fertilization and CO2-induced increases in water use efficiency (WUE) may be overestimated. In this study, satellite observations of a relative measure of chlorophyll content are used as a proxy for leaf photosynthetic N content globally for 2003–2011. Global gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration are estimated under elevated CO2 and N-constrained model scenarios. Results suggest that the rate of global GPP increase is overestimated by 85% during 2000–2015 without N limitation. This limitation is found to occur in many tropical and boreal forests, where a negative leaf N trend indicates a reduction in photosynthetic capacity, thereby suppressing the positive vegetation response to enhanced CO2 fertilization. Based on our carbon-water coupled simulations, enhanced CO2 concentration decreased stomatal conductance and hence increased WUE by 10% globally over the 1982 to 2015 time frame. Due to increased anthropogenic N application, GPP in croplands continues to grow and offset the weak negative trend in forests due to N limitation. Our results also show that the improved WUE is unlikely to ease regional droughts in croplands because of increases in evapotranspiration, which are associated with the enhanced GPP. Although the N limitation on GPP increase is large, its associated confidence interval is still wide, suggesting an urgent need for better understanding and quantification of N limitation from satellite observations.