Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences

This paper presents a multiple objective decision analysis approach to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate different Potassium iodide (KI) distribution plans for a hypothetical local region. We developed this approach for a National Research Council committee which was charged with figuring out the best means for protecting people against potential thyroid cancer due to the release of radioactive iodine. We first identify an objectives hierarchy, and then develop the single dimensional value functions and the weights for the objectives using a swing weight method. The identification of the largest value gaps between the status quo and the ideally perfect situation helps to develop potential KI distribution plans. We then use an additive value function to assess the performance of these new lternatives with the status quo as a benchmark by computing their overall values. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis for the KI problem shows this approach can create more key insights for the improvement of health and safety decision making processes, and is a useful contribution to the literature on sensitivity analysis in decisions under certainty.