UC Santa Cruz

This dissertation focuses on using empirical, or applied, microeconomics to answer questions of interest. The first two questions of interest are, whether EBT card reforms had unintended consequences, both good and bad, in the form of altered criminal behavior and food security. Chapters 1 and 2, respectively, address these questions using empirical techniques common to applied microeconomics. The third chapter is related in the sense that is also an exploration of a question of interest using empirical techniques common to applied microeconomics. In particular, the third chapter seeks to uncover which individual traits are associated with divorce in China, and how those characteristics have changed across generations. Moreover, I also seek to see if results regarding physical and mental health outcomes are replicable using Chinese data sources.

Chapter 1 considers EBT card reforms and the impact on black market food stamp sales and trafficking. By altering households' real income, reforms may have altered criminal behavior. Theory is ambiguous as diminished income may decrease alcohol and drug related crimes, but may also cause income motivated crimes such as robbery and burglary to rise. I exploit variation in the timing of EBT adoption in California to identify the effect of EBT on arrests. Despite representing a small decrease in income, I find a significant, though transitory, increase in criminal arrests resulting from EBT adoption. In particular, following a conversion to EBT benefits delivery, the average county experiences an additional 108 arrests or an increase of about 5%. This increase lasts about 6 months before fading out. This increase in crimes is most noticeable for crimes traditionally motivated by income shortfalls, such as burglary, larceny, prostitution and robbery. In the average county, income motivated criminal arrests rise by about 25 arrests or 9.7%. The increase is persistent for 6 months before fading out. I find little evidence that drug and alcohol related crimes diminished.

Chapter 2 investigates EBT card reforms in California's food stamp program, and the impact on food insecurity. Our hypothesis is that EBT cards will reduce food insecurity by reducing the food costs associated with loss and theft of benefits, as well as decreasing fraudulent sales of benefits. We use the California Health Interview Survey, and the roll-out of EBT card reforms across California counties, to conduct an event study. Our findings suggest no evidence for a decrease in food insecurity. We do, however, find evidence of a transitory increase in food insecurity immediately following EBT card reforms. Reforms increase the likelihood of food insecurity by about 2% for 1-2 months depending on the measure of food insecurity used. The result is distinguishable from zero, and robust to changes in specification, inclusion of controls, and measurement choices. We posit the increase was due to a less than perfectly smooth transition to the EBT card system.

Chapter 3 uses large, national surveys to investigate individual attributes associated with probability of divorce. In recent years China's divorce rate has risen rapidly. With this rapid rise has come a large number of potential explanations, both those grounded in economic theory, and those widely discussed in the public discourse. We investigate which individual attributes are associated with an increased probability of divorce, and to explain which explanations are not empirically substantiated. We find that Western attitudes and a sense of relative affluence are predictive of divorce. Furthermore, most popular explanations are not empirically confirmed. Finally, we find that previous results suggesting divorce is associated with worse mental health outcomes are applicable in China and not only Western nations.