UCSF

Rationale & objective

Tubulointerstitial damage is a feature of early chronic kidney disease (CKD), but current clinical tests capture it poorly. Urine biomarkers of tubulointerstitial health may identify risk of CKD.

Study design

Prospective cohort (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC]) and case-cohort (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA] and Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke [REGARDS]).

Setting & participants

Adults with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m² and without diabetes in the ARIC, REGARDS, and MESA studies.

Exposures

Baseline urine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), alpha-1-microglobulin (α1m), kidney injury molecule-1, epidermal growth factor, and chitinase-3-like protein 1.

Outcome

Incident CKD or end-stage kidney disease.

Analytical approach

Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for each cohort; meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts.

Results

872 ARIC participants (444 cases of incident CKD), 636 MESA participants (158 cases), and 924 REGARDS participants (488 cases) were sampled. Across cohorts, mean age ranged from 60 ± 10 to 63 ± 8 years, and baseline eGFR ranged from 88 ± 13 to 91 ± 14 mL/min/1.73 m². In ARIC, higher concentrations of urine MCP-1, α1m, and kidney injury molecule-1 were associated with incident CKD. In MESA, higher concentration of urine MCP-1 and lower concentration of epidermal growth factor were each associated with incident CKD. In REGARDS, none of the biomarkers were associated with incident CKD. In meta-analysis of all 3 cohorts, each 2-fold increase α1m concentration was associated with incident CKD (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.31).

Limitations

Observational design susceptible to confounding; competing risks during long follow-up period; meta-analysis limited to 3 cohorts.

Conclusions

In 3 combined cohorts of adults without prevalent CKD or diabetes, higher urine α1m concentration was independently associated with incident CKD. 4 biomarkers were associated with incident CKD in at least 1 of the cohorts when analyzed individually. Kidney tubule health markers might inform CKD risk independent of eGFR and albuminuria.