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Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia

  • Author(s): Khanna, Gaurav
  • Medina, Carlos
  • Nyshadham, Anant
  • Tamayo, Jorge A.
  • et al.
Abstract

Canonical models of crime emphasize economic incentives. Yet, causal evidence of sorting into criminal occupations in response to individual-level variation in incentives is limited. We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellín over a decade. We exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive benefits if not formally employed, to test whether a higher cost to formal-sector employment induces crime. Regression discontinuity estimates show this policy generated reductions in formal-sector employment and a corresponding spike in organized crime, but no effects on crimes of impulse or opportunity.

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