UC Davis

The task of assessing which technologies are most suitable for long-term aeronautics research investments is a matter of understanding the uncertainties and risk posed by technologies in terms of performance, maturity, and scalability into commercial production and operation. Within this study, a novel technology development risk assessment (TDRA) framework for advanced aircraft technologies is presented, where the concept of technology development risk is evaluated using the five-step Performance, Integration, Certification, Timeline, and Operation (PICTO) approach. The PICTO approach provides a TDRA framework for decision-makers that outlines uncertainty-driven qualitative and quantitative methods that can be used as early as the conceptual design phase to determine the risk levels, associated uncertainties, and commercial viability of advanced aircraft technologies within a portfolio. For performance and schedule risks, new systems-level analysis techniques are introduced within the PICTO approach that couple semi-empirical methods, aircraft sizing and performance estimation techniques, and Monte Carlo simulations within a modeling and simulation environment. Additionally, important risk factors absent from previous TDRA frameworks such as integration, certification, and operation are now formally included in this new approach to technology development risk. Finally, to demonstrate the capabilities of the new TDRA framework to early-stage risk assessment, a case study applying advanced aircraft technologies from the Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) project portfolio onto a short-haul, commuter regional turboprop studied under EPFD to obtain performance, timeline readiness, integration, certification, and operational risk assessment results.