UC Santa Barbara

Commercial fisheries worldwide face growing demand, changing markets, resource limitations, and climate challenges, which makes them susceptible to perturbations and sudden declines. Historical reforms and diversification have stabilized fisheries, but increasing shock events threaten future adaptability. Marine aquaculture is emerging as a way to bolster dwindling fishery resources and satisfy the increasing seafood demand. This study examines trends in marine wild capture fisheries and aquaculture in California, addressing the impact of fisheries shocks and policy changes on trends in seafood production. We found evidence that fisheries shocks can coincide with increased marine aquaculture growth, but aquaculture growth is likely influenced by policy landscapes. Particularly, an unbalanced regulatory framework favoring restrictive regulations has likely limited aquaculture growth in the state. However, data limitations and misclassification challenge the detection of aquaculture growth and interactions between fisheries and aquaculture. Additional factors such as technology, economics, market forces, and social acceptance can influence aquaculture growth, highlighting that trends in aquaculture expansion likely result from the interaction of multiple driving factors. This study underscores the importance of considering local and state-level dynamics in understanding aquaculture's role in seafood production resilience and stability.