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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Ashamed Not to Vote for an African-American; Ashamed to Vote for a Woman: An Analysis of the Bradley Effect from 1982-2006

  • Author(s): Stout, Christopher
  • Kline, Reuben
  • et al.

By systematically analyzing the universe of black, Latino, Asian American Senate and Gubernatorial candidates, a representative sample of female candidates, and a large sample of white male comparison cases, we demonstrate that there is a Bradley Effect for black candidates that continues to the present day. We also show that women are susceptible to a reverse Bradley Effect. In addition to this contribution, the article also introduces a model of preference falsification which fills a gap in the survey response bias literature and is consistent with our overall findings, though to our knowledge no data exists to test it directly.

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