UCLA

This thesis aims to properly test three hypotheses derived from

existing political theories about distributive politics by employing

Bayesian multilevel modeling. The specific case of

intergovernmental grants, the Special Local Allocation Grants,

in Korea at two nested levels (districts and provinces) from 2005 to

2006, verifies that unlike classical regression models, the Bayesian

multilevel regression model can capture regional variations in the

allocation and utilize substantive knowledge from previous

literature. In particular, the model finds that a significant positive

association between the amount of intergovernmental grants and being

an electorally unstable province in a broad region affected by

regional voting behavior (i.e., Electorally Unstable Provinces Hypothesis) even

after controlling for the need-based criteria. It justifies the chief

executive's strategy to target an electorally unstable [swing]

province even within a supporter region because people in the

electorally stable province are strongly affiliated with a regional

(or ethnic) identity so that they may be satisfied with the allocation

of grants even if they are not the main beneficiaries. Thus, while the

allocation is concentrated on core supporters that are well known

quantities at the district level, the allocation at the higher level

can be decided by the efficient targeting strategy. This finding provides a

strong implication for decentralized democratic governments under

circumstances where significant regionally (or ethnically)

affiliated-voting is observed. In Korea, the disproportional

allocations of central government grants to electorally unstable

province within its supporter region (Jeolla) from 2005 to 2008 helped

the government party to increase its vote share in the unstable

province (Jeonam) by 20% in 2008. The vote share in the electorally stable province (Jeonbuk) reduced only by 2.9\% in comparison with that in the previous election. It was a remarkable outcome, considering the the government party was defeated by the wide margin 13% nationwide and experienced a swing against it by 20.3% across the country in the election.