Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Causal queries about singular cases are ubiquitous, yet thequestion of how we assess whether a particular outcome wasactually caused by a specific potential cause turns out to bedifficult to answer. Relying on the causal power approach,Cheng and Novick (2005) proposed a model of causal attribu-tion intended to help answering this question. We challengethis model, both conceptually and empirically. The centralproblem of this model is that it treats the presence of sufficientcauses as necessarily causal in singular causation, and thus ne-glects that causes can be preempted in their efficacy. Also, themodel does not take into account that reasoners incorporateuncertainty about the underlying causal structure and strengthof causes when making causal inferences. We propose a newmeasure of causal attribution and embed it into our structure in-duction model of singular causation (SISC). Two experimentssupport the model.