UCLA

Population conflicts and tropical cyclones represent significant public health threats, particularly in low and middle-income countries, disrupting societies and profoundly impacting child health outcomes. Birthweight and stunting are key measures for assessing impacts of environmental, nutritional, and social stressors during early development. Although existing research suggests that conflicts and cyclones adversely affect birthweight and childhood stunting, most studies focus on single countries or events. Large-scale studies across multiple countries and extended periods are scarce. This dissertation combines geo-referenced data from various independent sources to examine the impacts of conflicts and cyclones on birthweight and stunting across multiple countries over time. Causal inference methods were used to evaluate potential interventions to mitigate these adversities.First, the impact of population conflicts on birthweight and stunting was investigated in Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from the 1990-2020 DHS and UCDP GED. Fixed effect regression models compared children in conflict-affected regions to those in unaffected areas, considering conflict intensity and duration. Results showed reduced birthweight and increased stunting odds for children exposed to conflicts, particularly girls in rural areas with less educated mothers and no healthcare autonomy. Second, the impact of tropical cyclones on birthweight and stunting was examined in Southern and Southeastern Asia using data from the 2000-2018 DHS and EM-DAT. Similar regression models were used. In-utero exposure to cyclones in the Philippines reduced birthweight, especially for children in rural areas. In Bangladesh and India, cyclones increased stunting odds, with more pronounced effects in girls and rural children with less educated mothers. No interactions between cyclones and conflicts were found. Lastly, hypothetical interventions were estimated using causal inference methods. Results indicated that preventing exposure to conflicts and cyclones could significantly increase birthweight and reduce stunting prevalence. In summary, these studies provide evidence of the adverse impacts of population conflicts and tropical cyclones on child growth and development, highlighting the need for effective prevention and adaptation strategies in low and middle-income countries. Addressing these issues aligns with the SDGs and offers insights for global public health interventions to mitigate environmental and social disruptions for vulnerable children.