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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Material world: forecasting household appliance ownership in a growing global economy

  • Author(s): Letschert, Virginie
  • McNeil, Michael
  • et al.

This paper presents a methodology for modeling residential appliance uptake as a function of macroeconomic variables, and presents forecasts of appliance diffusion through 2030 for several scenarios of economic (GDP) growth. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom­-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residen­tial sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time.

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