UCSF

Background

Only about one third of patients at high risk for psychosis based on current clinical criteria convert to a psychotic disorder within a 2.5-year follow-up period. Targeting clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals for preventive interventions could expose many to unnecessary treatments, underscoring the need to enhance predictive accuracy with nonclinical measures. Candidate measures include event-related potential components with established sensitivity to schizophrenia. Here, we examined the mismatch negativity (MMN) component of the event-related potential elicited automatically by auditory deviance in CHR and early illness schizophrenia (ESZ) patients. We also examined whether MMN predicted subsequent conversion to psychosis in CHR patients.

Methods

Mismatch negativity to auditory deviants (duration, frequency, and duration + frequency double deviant) was assessed in 44 healthy control subjects, 19 ESZ, and 38 CHR patients. Within CHR patients, 15 converters to psychosis were compared with 16 nonconverters with at least 12 months of clinical follow-up. Hierarchical Cox regression examined the ability of MMN to predict time to psychosis onset in CHR patients.

Results

Irrespective of deviant type, MMN was significantly reduced in ESZ and CHR patients relative to healthy control subjects and in CHR converters relative to nonconverters. Mismatch negativity did not significantly differentiate ESZ and CHR patients. The duration + frequency double deviant MMN, but not the single deviant MMNs, significantly predicted the time to psychosis onset in CHR patients.

Conclusions

Neurophysiological mechanisms underlying automatic processing of auditory deviance, as reflected by the duration + frequency double deviant MMN, are compromised before psychosis onset and can enhance the prediction of psychosis risk among CHR patients.