UC Davis

Open Source Software (OSS) projects have become an integral part of our digital landscape, revolutionizing the way we develop, distribute, and consume software in various sectors. From operating systems to complex data analysis tools, OSS projects are the backbone of the global digital infrastructure. They offer a collaborative platform for developers worldwide, fostering the development and maintenance of high-quality software by leveraging the collective knowledge and expertise of a diverse, global community. However, despite their undeniable potential and benefits, OSS projects often face challenges related to sustainability, requiring effective governance, and a committed community of volunteering contributors. Understanding and addressing these challenges is crucial for maintaining the sustainability of OSS projects, ultimately benefiting the broader digital ecosystem.

This thesis aims to investigate the dynamics of OSS projects to understand the underlying factors contributing to their sustainability or lack thereof. This investigation primarily provides insights into the following research questions: How effective can we predict sustainability based on socio-technical traces of OSS projects? Can we identify the determinants for OSS sustainability along with their weights and directions? And, are there temporal associations between socio-technical structure and institutional governance? Answers to the above questions can help us design tools and methodologies to forecast the sustainability trajectory of OSS projects. This would allow stakeholders, such as project managers, contributors, and sponsors, to make informed decisions about resource allocation, project involvement, and risk management.