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Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures

2016

McKinnon, KA;
Rhines, A;
Tingley, MP;
Huybers, P

Published Web Location

https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2687

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Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures
Defining hot weather
Precipitation deficits predict hot days
The Pacific Extreme Pattern (PEP) predicts hot days
Comparison to other predictors
Links between PEP, circulation, and precipitation
Hindcasting the summer of 2012
Methods
Figure 1 Hot days and heat events are defined from station measurements of daily maximum summer temperature.
Figure 2 Precipitation deficits and the Pacific Extreme Pattern skillfully predict hot days at long-lead times.
Figure 3 SST anomalies, geopotential height anomalies and wave activity fluxes associated with eastern US hot days.
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