Center for Effective Global Action

Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult for residents of developingcountries to produce accurate forecasts, limiting responses to uncertain future eventslike air pollution. We study two randomized interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: 1)provision of air pollution forecasts; 2) general training in forecasting. Both reducedsubjects’ own air pollution forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modesteducational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills. Forecast receiptincreased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoortime to pollution. Forecast recipients were willing to pay 60 percent of the cost ofmobile internet for continued access.