UCLA

Given the current economic climate, many people believe we are currently in a recession, or at least that such a downturn is on the horizon. By using logistic regression and classification models including decision trees and random forest, we can confirm the economic factors that instigate a recession. In addition, I used machine learning methods such as support vector machine to reinforce the classification in a multivariate space. The structure of this thesis is mainly in a time series analysis format in order to compare the similarities of the decade before the Financial Crisis of 2008 and the past decade, which would ultimately suggest a recession by the end of 2023.