Department of Mathematics, UCI

The events of 9/11 in the US changed the way we look at routine activities such as air and mass-transportation travel. We (as a society) are somewhat prepared to respond to natural acts (epidemics, earthquakes, etc.) but have no data or reliable information that would help in the planning or identification of a set of responses if a deliberate act (against unsuspecting population) were to take place. I will highlight some of the challenges that we face and outline the use of mathematical models in our efforts to meet some of them. I will use recent SARS and foot and mouth epidemics to ground some of the ideas. Should we prepare for worst case scenarios? If so, how do we define worst case scenarios mathematically? I will conclude with the use of some of these ideas on the potential impact or consequences associated with the deliberate release of a biological agent in the mass transportation system of a major metropolitan area.

Mathematical Models and Their Application to the Spread and Control of Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis high levels of prevalence in the world have been the norm, particularly in poor and/or developing nations. The impact of travel and immigration as well as the costs associated with the TB treatment and the consequences associated with treatment compliance (antibiotic resistance) will be discussed. The application of mathematical models in the evaluation of epidemiological and sociological factors associated with TB dynamics and its control at the population level will be highlighted.