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Joint Determination of Residential Relocation and Commuting: A Forecasting Experiment for Sustainable Land Use and Transportation Planning

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This article applies matrix forecasting methods to the investigation of residential relocation and commuting patterns that are highly interconnected, but often analyzed separately. More specifically, using recent inter-county migration and commuting pattern data for the three largest metropolitan areas in California, it examines how residential relocation and commuting are associated in the regions and whether a unified framework-in which household relocation and commuting flow matrices are jointly determined-can improve the forecasting performance. The relocation-commuting association is found to differ substantially by region, suggesting the importance of region-specific factors in shaping the interrelationship. Joint forecasting, however, can attain a higher accuracy compared to the two separate projections, although the forecasting performance varies based on the method employed.

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