Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The center of the San Joaquin Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the US. Farmers rely heavily on surface-water diversions to meet irrigation water demand. However, the 2007–2010 and 2012–2017 droughts have caused strong increases in groundwater pumping causing land subsidence with strong variability in location, magnitude (total subsidence) and rate of subsidence. In this study, we try to understand what caused these variations. We focus our analyses on three areas: (i) the Westland water district where subsidence was very small during the two drought periods, (ii) ‘El Nido’ area where the greatest subsidence rate was monitored from 2008 to 2010, and (iii) the’ Kings-Tulare counties’ area where the subsidence was small during the 2008–2010 and the largest during 2015–2017 droughts. Our main finding is that land subsidence is located in areas where the water demand for agriculture and the density of groundwater wells is the highest, whereas the rate of subsidence is strongly affected the amount of local and imported surface water and by groundwater resources. Based on these simple observations, we propose using continuous satellite-based ground deformation monitoring and geomechanical modeling to (i) localize areas most prone for future subsidence and (ii) to estimate and manage groundwater resources.