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Impact of interventions to reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology on the prevalence of dementia in the oldest-old.



The number of persons aged >90 years will grow significantly in coming decades. This group has the highest rates of dementia, most commonly Alzheimer's disease (AD).


Using The 90+ Study, we developed a statistical model for dementia risk based on brain pathologies. Intervention scenarios which reduce or eliminate AD pathology were considered, and the numbers of dementia cases among the U.S. oldest-old that could be prevented were estimated.


The U.S. dementia prevalence among the oldest-old will increase from 1.35 million in 2015 to 4.72 million in 2050. If interventions eliminate AD pathology, dementia prevalence would be reduced by approximately 50%, averting nearly 2.4 million cases in 2050. However, large numbers of dementia cases would still remain.


Reducing AD pathology would significantly decrease the public health burden of dementia. However, other interventions are needed to address the burden associated with other dementing pathologies prevalent in the oldest-old.

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