UC Irvine

Objective

Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2.

Methods

We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations.

Results

It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time.

Conclusion

Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.