UCLA

PURPOSE: Demonstrate that a novel Bayesian hierarchical spatial longitudinal (HSL) model improves estimation of local macular ganglion cell complex (GCC) rates of change compared to simple linear regression (SLR) and a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. METHODS: We analyzed GCC thickness measurements within 49 macular superpixels in 111 eyes (111 patients) with four or more macular optical coherence tomography scans and two or more years of follow-up. We compared superpixel-patient-specific estimates and their posterior variances derived from the latest version of a recently developed Bayesian HSL model, CAR, and SLR. We performed a simulation study to compare the accuracy of intercept and slope estimates in individual superpixels. RESULTS: HSL identified a significantly higher proportion of significant negative slopes in 13/49 superpixels and a significantly lower proportion of significant positive slopes in 21/49 superpixels than SLR. In the simulation study, the median (tenth, ninetieth percentile) ratio of mean squared error of SLR [CAR] over HSL for intercepts and slopes were 1.91 (1.23, 2.75) [1.51 (1.05, 2.20)] and 3.25 (1.40, 10.14) [2.36 (1.17, 5.56)], respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A novel Bayesian HSL model improves estimation accuracy of patient-specific local GCC rates of change. The proposed model is more than twice as efficient as SLR for estimating superpixel-patient slopes and identifies a higher proportion of deteriorating superpixels than SLR while minimizing false-positive detection rates. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: The proposed HSL model can be used to model macular structural measurements to detect individual glaucoma progression earlier and more efficiently in clinical and research settings.