University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

The economic crises in Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, and Japan have focused attention on the region's economic problems as well as its well-documented success. One potential problem is satiating these economies' increasing demand for energy. This problem has been made even more pressing by deep devaluations that substantially raised imported energy prices in local currency terms. IGCC Policy Papers 35-37, Energy and Security in Northeast Asia, seek to examine the international implications of the longer-term energy situation in Northeast Asia, including the decisions that government policymakers are likely to make to address their economies' pressing energy needs. Policy Paper 35, Fueling Security, debates the fundamental issue of whether rising energy demand generates new security dilemmas or whether efficient energy markets mitigate potential security risks arising from increased competition for energy resources. Kent Calder argues that energy rivalry might deepen tensions among the major powers in Northeast Asia, while Fereidun Fesharaki sees market competition where Calder sees rivalry. This paper examines the market assumptions behind these analyses, including the current status and projections for overall regional energy demand (Fesharaki, Sara Banaszak, and WU Kang) and fossil fuel use (WU).