UC Davis

Objective

Overall survival (OS) for advanced stage (IIIA-IV) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is highly variable, and retrospective data show a survival advantage for patients receiving therapeutic intent pulmonary resection. We hypothesized that this variability in OS can be modeled separately by stage to allow a personalized estimate of OS.

Methods

In a cohort of patients with advanced-stage NSCLC from the National Cancer Database, we assessed the accuracy of Surgical Selection Score (SSS) to predict OS using Cox proportional hazards models and determined by stage the effect of surgery on survival among people with similarly high levels of SSS.

Results

In total, 300,572 patients were identified; 18,701 (6%) had surgery. The SSS was a strong predictor of OS (C-index, 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-0.90). We observed significantly greater OS (P < .001) among patients who had surgery. The hazard of death was at least 2 times greater for patients in the upper quartile of SSS who did not receive surgery compared with surgical patients even when adjusting for the SSS (stage IIIA: hazard ratio [HR], 2.1; 95% CI, 2.0-2.2, stage IIIB: HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.2-2.5, stage IV: HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.2-2.4).

Conclusions

The SSS is highly predictive of individual OS and can be used as a risk assessment tool. These findings are important for a more robust evaluation of the likely benefits of surgical resection for these patients. After further prospective validation, the SSS can be used during treatment decision-making for patients with advanced-stage NSCLC.