UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies

We report the results of a survey of the potential demand for electric vehicles

(EVs) among a subset of California households. We limit our analysis to one group

of potential hybrid households. These households own two or more light duty

vehicles and buy new vehicles of the body styles we expect will be offered as

electric vehicles. These characteristics identify households who may be able to

incorporate at least one limited range vehicle into their hosehold vehicle

holdings with no, or minimal, affect on household lifestyle choices. We define

hybrid households to be those households that choose an electric vehicle in the

choice exercises in the survey. We formulate our central research question as the

hybrid household hypothesis. It states that potential hybrid households will

choose to include at least one EV in their household fleet of vehicles, thus

becoming hybrid households.

We believe that this subset of potential hybrid households buys between 35 and 45

percent of all new, light-duty vehicles sold in California every year. The survey

instrument was administered to households who belong to this subset of households

in 6 metropolitan areas of California. Four hundred and fifty-four households

completed and returned the questionnaire.

The hybrid household hypothesis is supported by our respondents' choices. In two

different choice scenarios, nearly half our sample indicates they would choose an

electric vehicle as their next new vehicle. Even among those who indicate their

next new vehicle would be either a gasoline or natural gas vehicle, some indicate

they would choose an EV at some point in the future.

Based on the responses to the vehicle choise exercises and on the share of the

market that our sample represents, we find the market potential for EVs to be 13

to 15 percent of the annual new light-duty vehicle market in California. Based on

past annual sales of 1.4 million new, light-duty vehicles in California (a typical

market during the past few years), the EV market share represents between 186,000

and 213,000 vehicles annually. This is subject to several assumptions, most

importantly that, besides smaller EVs, consumers will be able to choose from

midsize EVs that have driving ranges between 60 and 150 miles and that EVs will be

priced comparably to gasoline vehicles. Even if the former is not true, and only

sub-compact and compact body styles are available, the potential market for EVs

among hybrid households will be no less than 7 percent of the new light-duty

vehicle market.

We belive therefore, there is sufficient household consumer interest in EVs to

satisfy the mandated 2 percent level of sales of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) in

the year 1998 as well as the 5 percent level in 2001 given current EV

technologies. To meet the mandated level of 10 percent light-duty vehicle sales in

the year 2003, will require either that advances in electrical storage technology

allow for mid-size electric vehicles with driving ranges of 60 to 150 miles or the

sale of sufficient smaller EVs to the market segments not surveyed for this study:

comercial and governemtn fleets and households that do not meet the potential

hybrid household definition used in this study.