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A simpler method for predicting weight loss in the first year after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.

  • Author(s): Sczepaniak, John P;
  • Owens, Milton L;
  • Garner, William;
  • Dako, Farouk;
  • Masukawa, Kristin;
  • Wilson, Samuel E
  • et al.
Abstract

Factors postulated to predict weight loss after gastric bypass surgery, include race, age, gender, technique, height, and initial weight. This paper contained 1551 gastric bypass patients (85.9% female). Operations were performed by one surgeon (MLO) at community hospitals in Southern California from 1989 to 2008 with 314 being laparoscopic and 1237 open. We created the following equation: In[percent weight] = At(2) - Bt, where t was the time after operation (days) and A and B are constants. Analysis was completed on R-software. The model fits with R(2) value 0.93 and gives patients a realistic mean target weight with a confidence interval of 95% for the first year. Conclusion. We created a curve predicting weight loss after surgery as a percentage of initial weight. Initial weight was the single most important predictor of weight loss after surgery. Other recorded variables accounted for less than 1% of variability. Unknown factors account for the remaining 6-7%.

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