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Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Pertussis Using Recursive Point Process and SEIR model


Here we used the recursive point process and SEIR model to describe the transmission dynamics of pertussis. The recursive point process is a refined version of the Hawkes point process which defines productivity as a function of conditional intensity. The SEIR model is a variant of the basic compartmental model, SIR, which additionally takes into account a period when an individual is infected but not infectious yet. We attempted to fit the models to the reported cases of pertussis in Nevada since 1940. The evaluation of the model fit and prediction errors suggests that the recursive point process performs better in modeling the spread of pertussis and predicting the weekly incidence. However, we still recommend using it along with the SEIR model considering that the compartmental model has been more commonly used for an epidemic study.

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