UC Davis

Electric vehicle adoption is increasing rapidly in the United States, driven by policies aimed at mitigating climate change. Lithium-ion batteries are the key enabling technology for EVs. The production and refining of lithium is thus essential to electric vehicle manufacturing. Lithium is considered a critical mineral in the United States because its use is linked to national security, energy and transportation needs and its ease of availability in the future is not guaranteed. Understanding how much lithium is required for a clean transportation future is important to mitigate risks associated with lithium depletion and potential barriers to achieving climate mitigation targets. For this reason, the following thesis models lithium demand and recycling in the United States from 2020 to 2050 under a variety of scenarios that examine vehicle battery size, vehicle ownership rates, and recycling rates to determine the quantity of virgin lithium required for complete electrification of the on-road US fleet by 2050. The model shows that with no significant changes in battery size or mode share US lithium demand will be 300 million kg in 2050 exceeding current global lithium production by 200% and recycled material will not be able to close the gap between future demand and current production. Reducing only battery size can result in up to a 29% decrease in lithium demand while shifting mode shares only can result in a 67% decrease in lithium demand in 2050.