UC Davis

1. The changing climate is altering species distributions with consequences for population dynamics, resulting in winners and losers in the Anthropocene. 2. Agraulis vanillae, the gulf fritillary butterfly, has expanded its range in the past 100 years in the western U.S.A. Time series analysis is combined with species distribution modelling to investigate factors limiting the distribution of A. vanillae and to predict future shifts under warming scenarios. 3. Time series analyses from the western U.S.A. show that urban development has a positive association with year of colonisation (the host plant Passiflora is an ornamental in gardens). Colonisation was also associated positively and to a lesser extent with winter maximum temperatures, whereas a negative impact of minimum temperatures and precipitation was apparent on population growth rates after establishment. 4. Species distribution models vary by region. In the eastern U.S.A., the butterfly is primarily limited by minimum temperatures in the winter and host availability later in the season. Eastern U.S. projected expansion broadly follows the expectation of poleward distributional shifts, especially for the butterfly's maximum annual extent. Western U.S. distributions are limited by the host plant, which in turn is dependent on urban centres. Projected western U.S. expansion is not limited to a single direction and is driven by urban centres becoming more suitable for the host plant. 5. These results demonstrate the value of combining time series with spatial modelling, at the same time as incorporating biotic interactions, aiming to understand and predict shifting geographical ranges in the Anthropocene.