University of California International and Area Studies

This paper tests the out of sample predictive ability of reduced form models found in the literature on forecasting CO2 emissions. We show that for a newly available panel data set covering the fifty U.S. States and Washington D.C. during the years 1960 - 2000, the benchmark models found in the literature are outperformed by over 3000 of the considered models. A search over a large universe of models selects a ”best” performing model using the mean square forecast error from a simulated out of sample forecast experiment. Forecasts of aggregate CO2 emissions for the United States are provided.