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Statistical Analysis and Predictive Modeling in Basketball: Unveiling Key Variables for Championship Success
- Chua, Garvyn Jay
- Advisor(s): Schoenberg, Rick
Abstract
The game of basketball has witnessed constant evolution, necessitating the use of statistical data for predicting winners. While the odds of winning a championship are traditionally 1 in 30 each year, strategic positioning in various statistical categories can surpass this baseline, regardless of a team’s annual ranking. By analyzing data and identifying crucial variables, it becomes evident that basketball outcomes are not predetermined. This study employs modern data science methods to make predictions for future years or generations, emphasiz- ing the importance of selecting accurate via cross-validation for the machine learning (ML) techniques. All data used in this study is sourced from Basketball-Reference. This study debunks the fallacy that a team solely relying on prominent three-point shooters guarantees championship success. It underscores the significance of other factors and variables in deter- mining outcomes. The analysis emphasizes the importance of relying on objective statistical analysis rather than subjective perceptions. Factors like overtime play and defensive prowess in blocks significantly impact a team’s likelihood of becoming an NBA champion, reinforcing the need for data-driven insights and accurate predictions.
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