UCSF

New approaches are needed to determine which ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is at high risk for progression to invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). We retrospectively studied DCIS patients who declined surgery (2002-2019), and received endocrine therapy (ET) and breast MRI. Baseline MRI and changes at 3 months and 6 months were analyzed by recursive partitioning to stratify IDC risk. Sixty-two patients (63 DCIS; 1 bilateral) with a mean follow-up of 8.5 years were included. Fifty-one percent remained on active surveillance (AS) without evidence of IDC, with a mean duration of 7.6 years. A decision tree based on MRI features of lesion distinctness and background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) at baseline and change after 3 months of ET stratified patients into low, intermediate, and high risk for progression to IDC. MRI imaging features in patients treated with ET and undergoing AS, may help determine which DCIS lesions are at low versus high risk for IDC.