UC Berkeley

A partnership of affluent nations is proposed to pursue the objective of universal electrification in the world with a challenging interim goal of bringing efficient and sustainable[2] 2 For the purposes of this paper sustainable electric systems are those that emit low or no net greenhouse gases (GHGs). This requirement is generally consistent with the goal expressed in the National Research Council report Our Common Journey: a Transition Toward Sustainability [National Research Council, 1999]: "... that the primary goals of transition toward sustainability should be to meet the needs of a much larger but stabilizing population, to sustain the life support systems of the planet and to sustainably reduce hunger and poverty." The authors believe that the electric systems targeted in the universal electrification proposal of this paper can contribute to the goals of the transition explored by the academy. The partners must assure this contribution, but for simplicity the authors use the criterion of low or no net greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation to qualify a system as sustainable. electric services within 20 years to one billion people. Four plausible partners are the United States, the European Union, Japan with Australia and New Zealand, and, perhaps, the OPEC countries. The partners would provide part of the capital needed for electrification. This "concessionary" contribution should stimulate private investors and/or indigenous governments to supply the remainder of the capital needed, and to organize the management of each electrification project. The concessionary contribution would be designed for two objectives: (1) to help alleviate poverty, grow opportunities, and increase the quality of life in the developing world by providing electric services to all, and (2) to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions by supporting a low-carbon development path toward universal electrification. Paying for the difference in cost between high-efficiency end-use equipment and least-first-cost equipment would pursue the first objective. This concession would significantly lower the cost to the consumer of electricity services. The second objective would be pursued by paying the added cost (up to $ 1000/kW) of low-GHG or climate-friendly electricity generation (i.e., low or no-net carbon-emitting systems) over and above least-first-cost generation technology. This electrification of one billion people would require about 50 GWe of new electric generating capacity assuming 50% capacity factor and 15% line losses. The concessionary investment needed would be up to $50 billion for low-GHG generation plus about $30 billion for efficient end-use equipment. An additional 25% of the concessionary contribution would go for training, program management and evaluation. The total is $ 100 billion (or $ 100/person) spread over 20 years, or about $ 1.25 billion per partner per year assuming an equal share for each partner. The remainder of the capital required is estimated to be about $ 170/person for the electrical system including hook-up, plus another $ 140/person for efficient end-use equipment purchased at the cost of least-first-cost equipment. The consumer would pay back these non-concessionary investments through the price of electricity and through a lease-purchase charge for end-use equipment. Provision of basic electricity services for newly electrified communities is estimated to require about 0.025 kW/person on average for all electric uses including domestic, commercial, agricultural and industrial uses, compared with current electricity services of about 1.8 kW/person in the United States and 0.3 kW/person globally. Thus, electric power per capita in these poor, mostly rural areas would be very small initially, just sufficient to meet basic necessities, and consistent with customers' ability to pay. Not every community would choose or be able to buy even this much, but to have the opportunity for electric services at whatever level will make a huge difference in people's lives. Experience over many decades has shown that electrification can help alleviate poverty, improve health, reduce drudgery, and increase literacy, all contributing to the UN's Millennium Development Goals to which all countries are committed. © 2005 International Energy Initiative, Inc.