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Drivers of Change in a World of Mobility Disruption:  An Overview of Long Distance Travel, Shared Mobility, and Automated Vehicles

Abstract

Electrification, automation, and shared mobility, known as the 3 Revolutions (3R) will fundamentally change transportation globally. The 3 Revolutions are coming, and they will change existing travel behavior such as long-distance trips and create new questions such as who will drive for shared mobility and who will buy automated vehicles. Long distance travel, drivers for on-demand ride services, and the adoption of automated vehicles have been of recent interest to researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers but have just begun to be studied.

Long-distance travel research is limited due to the lack of robust data and the complexity of defining a long-distance trip. The patterns of infrequent long-distance trips are poorly understood especially compared to the better studied (and understood) local daily travel patterns. This study contributes to filling that gap by investigating the factors that affect the frequency of long-distance trips of Californian millennials and members of the preceding Generation X. The data used was collected with an online survey administered in fall 2015 to study the mobility of these age groups. The survey collected information on several travel-related variables, including the number of long-distance trips (defined as trips longer than 100 miles, one way) made by various modes during the previous 12 months. Six negative binomial regression models of long-distance travel separated by purpose (business or leisure) and mode (overall travel versus air) are estimated. The study explores the relationship of long-distance trip formation with several sociodemographic, land use and attitudinal variables. Consistent with expectations, individual income positively affects the number of long-distance trips made by each individual. Among the attitudinal variables, the individuals who are adventurers, have higher “variety seeking” attitudes and are more interested in adopting new technologies are found to make a larger number of long-distance trips. On the other hand, those who prefer to shop in brick-and-mortar stores rather than online are found to have lower levels of long-distance travel.

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