UCSF

A mathematical model is presented for the dynamics of the rate of infection of the Lyme disease vector tick Ixodes dammini (Acari: Ixodidae) by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi, in the Atlantic Northeast of the United States. According to this model, moderate reductions in the abundance of white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus may either decrease or increase the spirochete infection rate in ticks, provided the deer are not reservoir hosts for Lyme disease. Expressions for the basic reproductive rate of the disease are computed analytically for special cases, and it is shown that as the basic reproductive rate increases, a proportional reduction in the tick population produces a smaller proportional reduction in the infection rate, so that vector control is less effective far above the threshold. The model also shows that control of the mouse reservoir hosts Peromyscus leucopus could reduce the infection rate if the survivorship of juvenile stages of ticks were reduced as a consequence. If the survivorship of juvenile stages does not decline as the rodent population is reduced, then rodent reduction can increase the spirochete infection rate in the ticks.