UC Santa Cruz

Fish in all the world’s oceans exhibit variable body size and growth over time, with some populations exhibiting long-term declines in size. These patterns can be caused by a range of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors and impact the productivity of harvested populations. Within a given species, individuals often exhibit a range of life history strategies that may cause some groups to be buffered against change. One of the most studied declines in size-at-age has been in populations of salmon; Chinook salmon in the Northeast Pacific Ocean are the largest-bodied salmon species and have experienced long-term declines in size. Using long-term monitoring data, we develop novel size and growth models to link observed changes in Chinook size to life history traits and environmental variability. Our results identify three distinct trends in size across the 48 stocks in our study. Differences among populations are correlated with ocean distribution, migration timing, and freshwater residence. We provide evidence that trends are driven by interannual variation in certain oceanographic processes and competition with pink salmon.