- Main
Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
- Author(s): Morim, J;
- Hemer, M;
- Wang, XL;
- Cartwright, N;
- Trenham, C;
- Semedo, A;
- Young, I;
- Bricheno, L;
- Camus, P;
- Casas-Prat, M;
- Erikson, L;
- Mentaschi, L;
- Mori, N;
- Shimura, T;
- Timmermans, B;
- Aarnes, O;
- Breivik, Ø;
- Behrens, A;
- Dobrynin, M;
- Menendez, M;
- Staneva, J;
- Wehner, M;
- Wolf, J;
- Kamranzad, B;
- Webb, A;
- Stopa, J;
- Andutta, F
- et al.
Published Web Location
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5Abstract
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
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