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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

  • Author(s): Morim, J;
  • Hemer, M;
  • Wang, XL;
  • Cartwright, N;
  • Trenham, C;
  • Semedo, A;
  • Young, I;
  • Bricheno, L;
  • Camus, P;
  • Casas-Prat, M;
  • Erikson, L;
  • Mentaschi, L;
  • Mori, N;
  • Shimura, T;
  • Timmermans, B;
  • Aarnes, O;
  • Breivik, Ø;
  • Behrens, A;
  • Dobrynin, M;
  • Menendez, M;
  • Staneva, J;
  • Wehner, M;
  • Wolf, J;
  • Kamranzad, B;
  • Webb, A;
  • Stopa, J;
  • Andutta, F
  • et al.
Abstract

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

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