UC Irvine

California has been on state of emergency for almost two years as a result of the continued drought. This has caused a decrease or more costly production for many water intensive industries. In addition, it has caused a reduction in crops harvested in the Central Valley and other regions within the state. These productivity issues could lead to potential changes in freight movements within the state which can affect future planning. A freight forecasting model developed by the University of California, Irvine Institute of Transportation Studies is used to forecast any possible changes in freight movements for the year 2020 assuming a continued drought. This model has several characteristics that allow it to be applied under various socioeconomic conditions such as with varying employment, number of establishments per industry type, and harvested acreage per freight analysis zone (FAZ). Four different scenarios are developed. Two assuming drought conditions and two assuming no drought. Results indicate changes in VMT up to a maximum of 3% percent in some regions and emissions reductions up to 2.4% in the San Joaquin Valley air basin. Most effects are visible in the Central Valley region which is home to the largest agricultural production in the state.