UC Irvine

Social disorganization theory holds that neighborhoods with a greater population stability, higher socio-economic status and more ethnic homogeneity experience less disorder because these neighborhoods have higher social cohesion and exercise more social control. Recent extensions of the theory argue that disorder in turn affects these structural characteristics and mechanisms. Using a dataset on 74 neighborhoods in the city of Utrecht in the Netherlands spanning ten years, we tested the extended theory, which to date only few studies have been able to do because of unavailability of neighborhood-level longitudinal data. We also improve on previous studies by distinguishing between potential for social control (feelings of responsibility) and actual social control behavior. Cross-sectional analyses replicate earlier findings, but the results of longitudinal cross-lagged models suggest that disorder has large consequences for subsequent levels of social control and population turnover, thus leading to more disorder. This is in contrast to previous research, which sees disorder more as a consequence than a cause. This study underlines the importance of longitudinal data, allowing for simultaneously testing the causes and consequences of disorder, as well as the importance of breaking down social control into the potential for social control and actual social control behavior.