UCSF

Background

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, San Francisco County (SFC) had to shift many nonemergency health care resources to COVID-19, reducing HIV control resources. We sought to quantify COVID-19 effects on HIV burden among men who have sex with men (MSM) as SFC returns to pre-COVID service levels and progresses toward the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals.

Setting

Microsimulation model of MSM in SFC tracking HIV progression and treatment.

Methods

Scenario analysis where services affected by COVID-19 [testing, care engagement, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake, and retention] return to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 or 2025, compared against a counterfactual where COVID-19 changes never occurred. We also examined scenarios where resources are prioritized to reach new patients or retain of existing patients from 2023 to 2025 before all services return to pre-COVID levels.

Results

The annual number of MSM prescribed PrEP, newly acquired HIV, newly diagnosed, and achieving viral load suppression (VLS) rebound quickly after HIV care returns to pre-COVID levels. However, COVID-19 service disruptions result in measurable reductions in cumulative PrEP use, VLS person-years, incidence, and an increase in deaths over the 2020-2035 period. The burden is statistically significantly larger if these effects end in 2025 instead of 2022. Prioritizing HIV care/prevention initiation over retention results in more person-years of PrEP but less VLS person-years and more deaths, influencing EHE PrEP outcomes.

Conclusions

Earlier HIV care return to pre-COVID levels results in lower cumulative HIV burdens. Resource prioritization decisions may differentially affect different EHE goals.