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On the Attribution of a Single Event to Climate Change

Published Web Location

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00399.1
Abstract

There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisinglywide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.

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