On the attribution of a single event to climate change
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1
There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisinglywide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.