UC San Diego
Turning Out Unlikely Voters? A Field Experiment in the Top-Two Primary
- Author(s): Hill, SJ
- Kousser, T
- et al.
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-015-9319-3
© 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York. Those who turn out in American primary elections are a small and unrepresentative subset of the population. Why do citizens forgo participation in nominating contests yet vote in general elections? We argue that limited contact lowers participation in primary elections. We present results from a randomized field experiment with near 150,000 letters in California’s 2014 primary. Each letter went to one of the four million Californians who had participated in recent general elections but not in primaries. We find that a single letter increased turnout by 0.5 points from a base rate of 9.3 percent. This increase is more than twice the average effect calculated in a recent meta-analysis and represents a proportional increase of 5.4 percent. Our experiment shows that registrants who typically abstain from primaries—and who are thus often ignored by campaigns—can be effectively mobilized.